Tuesday, 22 October 2013
Five Questions Investors Should Ask When A CEO Returns
Professional investors often gauge a company's fortunes by measuring the CEO's individual experience, strategy and frame of mind. After all, this top executive will call the shots on a company's strategy when it comes to such critical management decisions as making acquisitions, rolling out new products and adding branch offices around the world.
Assessing a CEO’s value and potential can be particularly thorny when the leader returns to the company that he or she had previously run. As mutual fund literature invariably reminds us: Past performance is not always indicative of future results.
For example, A.G. Lafley came back to run Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) last May 23. On Aug. 1, a Reuters article proclaimed: "P&G Appears Back on Track with CEO Lafley's Return," referring to a favorable 2014 forecast for P&G. Yet the company's stock has slightly lagged the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index by a few percentage points since his return.
Granted, it is too soon to reach any conclusions about P&G. But given how widely respected Lafley is, the data underscores just how challenging it is even for a very well regarded chief, such as Lafley, to impress Wall Street right from the get-go.
U.S. corporate annals are filled with high-profile examples of CEOs who returned to glory. The roster includes Lafley, Mike Ullman of J.C. Penney, Charles Schwab of the brokerage firm bearing his name, Howard Schultz of Starbucks, Michael Dell of Dell Computers and Steve Jobs of Apple.
Here are five questions investors should ask when a CEO returns:
1. What is the state of the company that the CEO is taking over?
Exactly how is the company doing? If an entity is utterly downtrodden, no leader can work miracles, no matter how glowing the track record or promising the stated growth strategy.
“Investors must ask if the company has greatly suffered or has it been on the rise?” says Betsy Billard, a private wealth adviser at Ameriprise Financial. “Visionaries really are few and far between so investors have to take each example on a case-by-case basis.”
The condition of a company is crucial because it will give a hint as to how long it may take the returning CEO to put his or her stamp on a company. “I would want to know if the company is innovating. Or, is it hiring and therefore expanding?” Billard points out.
2. Why did the CEO leave in the first place?
As Sam Hill, a CEO consultant and the author of “Radical Marketing: From Harvard to Harley, Lessons from Ten That Broke the Rules and Made It Big,” said in an interview: “CEO gigs are the modern equivalent of dukedoms, extremely privileged positions. Typically, people leave them for a small handful of reasons, one of which is they’re exhausted by the job. Whenever a CEO returns, I’d like to make sure she or he has the energy and enthusiasm to take the job back on.”
Long-term investors in particular may want to monitor some aspects of the incoming CEO. “That’s particularly true when the CEO is older, like A.G. Lafley is now,” Hill noted. “As much as I respect Procter and the incredible job (that) A.G. did the first time around, I’d be watchful this time. He’s a 66-year-old man who left the position to write books and give speeches. Is he back enthusiastically or reluctantly?”
3. How has the returning CEO exhibited personal or professional growth in the time away?
The most famous case of a CEO returning to the old stomping grounds involved Steve Jobs coming back to Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL). His case is worth examining because, given his notoriety over the years, he can serve as the totem for returning CEOs. Upon his return, he demonstrated self-awareness and maturity, factors that would encourage even skeptical investors to conclude he has grown.
Jobs co-founded Apple, driven by a vision for changing the world through computers. This was the message he conveyed to John Sculley, then of Pepsi-Cola (NYSE:PEP) when he beseeched Sculley to be CEO of Apple. But when the two leaders engaged in a power struggle, the Apple board sided with Sculley and Jobs left the company as a defeated man.
Jobs founded NeXT Inc. in 1985, with $7 million. It was not a noteworthy success partly because the NeXT computers carried huge price tags. He also acquired The Graphics Group, later called Pixar, from Lucasfilm for $10 million. The first movie he rolled out was "Toy Story," a big success that spawned sequels and changed the animation-movie scene.
What he learned about himself helped to pave the wave for Apple’s remarkable growth in the 21st century. “I’m pretty sure,” Jobs said in the speech, “none of this would have happened if I hadn’t been fired from Apple. It was awful-tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it.”
4. Do you trust the incoming CEO’s growth strategy?
Ultimately, you have to go with your gut when you’re investing your money. You have to feel assured that the individual has the experience, savvy and understanding of the marketplace to do whatever will be required.
One returning CEO who changed the company’s fortunes for the better was Howard Schultz of Starbucks (Nasdaq:SBUX). “When Schultz came back to Starbucks (in January 2008), he revived the company,” says Anton Bayer, the chief executive of UpCapital Management, a registered investment advisor in Granite Bay, California.
Schultz, upon his return, worked to revitalize the “experience” of going to a Starbucks shop. He had disapprovingly noted in a memo in February 2007, a full year before he came back to the company, that Starbucks had experienced a “commoditization” of its brand by creating “efficiencies.”
He instilled a sense of purpose in the company’s 10,000 store managers by bringing them to New Orleans for a meeting. He also innovated smartly with technology by employing social media as a way to further Starbucks’ branding efforts.
Schultz also instituted e-payments, allowing customers to send one another e-gifts. When you walk into a Starbucks these days, you can’t help but notice how many people pay for their coffees with nifty apps on their iPhones. This makes the payment process more convenient for customers and advances Starbucks’ image as a company that is in tune with the attitudes of its young customers.
As a corollary to the question of what to do when a CEO returns, how should investors deal with the development when a CEO comes in from outside the cocoon?
Sometimes, as it turns out, the devil you know is ultimately better than the one you don’t. Look at what happened at the giant retailer J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP).
The company hoped to shake up its stodgy image by recruiting Apple veteran Ron Johnson, who was widely praised as the architect behind the successful Apple-store concept. In November, 2011, Johnson succeeded Ullman as J.C. Penney’s CEO.
But Johnson turned off long-time Penney customers who had grown accustomed to such practices as heavy discounting and welcomed those coupons and sales. He exited unceremoniously last April and was replaced by Ullman, his predecessor.
“Ron Johnson made a lot of changes without making any tests,” Hill says. “In retail, you can test everything, such as a store layout or even the hours it is open. Maybe at J.C. Penney, maybe he felt he a sense of urgency and didn’t have time to test. Sometimes these changes take time.”
5. Do institutional investors trust the CEO’s strategy?
No matter how successful or charismatic a CEO has been, he or she will need to have professional investors, who often determine the direction of a company’s shares.
“You want to have the assurance that the institutional managers are confirming the incoming CEO’s strategy,” Bayer said. “They sit down with the CEO and we (investors) don’t get a chance to do that. A company can’t hide from how the stock is doing and what the institutional buyers are doing. No CEO can hide behind a ‘great story’ if those investors are running away.”
I asked Bayer how his investment firm conducts research into a company before he buys its shares of stock. “We look at annual reports and company announcements. Then, we combine the fundamental analysis with technical analysis.”
The Bottom Line
Clearly, the return of a CEO brings formidable investment challenges. It helps to check the investment research that is readily available. It is wise to consult a professional investment strategist. But ultimately, it’s your money and you have to trust your gut. As Bayer succinctly put it about a returning CEO’s arrival: “Do you believe in the story? If so, invest in the company.”
3 Of The Best Traders Alive
While all investors must trade, a "trader" by profession does not
technically make investments. According to Benjamin Graham, a founding
father of the value investing movement, an investment must promise
"safety of principal and an adequate return." Investors make informed
decisions after careful analysis of the business fundamentals of a
company. Traders, on the other hand, use technical analysis to place
bets engineered to profit on short-term market volatility. In the early 2000s, it was not uncommon for people to quit their jobs, empty their 401(k) plans and actively trade for a living from the comfort of their homes. Fueled by massive stock market and real estate bubbles, it was hard to lose money. However, this golden age has come and gone. The year 2007 brought with it a global recession and subsequent proliferation of financial regulation. High-frequency trading, carried out by computers running incredibly complex algorithms, now account for between 50 and 70% of trade volume on any given day of trading.
Traders frequently lose large chunks of money over the course of a single day of trading, hoping that their gains will offset their losses over time. They must also overcome significantly higher transaction costs and competition with super-computers. While the cards are stacked against traders in general, there are a handful of traders with enough brains, boldness and capital to take on the odds.
Paul Tudor Jones (1954-Present)
The founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, a $12 billion hedge fund, Paul Tudor Jones made his fortune shorting the 1987 stock market crash. Jones was able to predict the multiplying effect that portfolio insurance would have on a bear market. Portfolio insurance, a popular risk management tool, involves buying index puts to lower one's portfolio risk. Thus, in a bear market, more and more investors will choose to employ their put options and drive the market down even further. Jones' bet paid off big: on Black Monday of 1987, he was able to triple his capital from his short positions. Jones is worth roughly $3.6 billion today and is currently managing his hedge fund.
George Soros (1930-Present)
George Soros is arguably the most well-known trader in the history of the business, known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England." In 1992, Soros made roughly $1 billion in a bet that the British pound would depreciate in value. At the time, the pound had been introduced into the European ERM rate - an exchange rate mechanism designed to keep its listed currencies within a set of defined parameters to increase systemic financial stability. With the help of his associates at his hedge fund, the Quantum Investment Fund, Soros noticed that the pound was not fundamentally strong enough to stay in the ERM, and built up a short position to the tune of $10 billion. Soros is currently worth an approximated $19 billion and is retired.
John Paulson (1955-Present)
Praised by some for executing the "greatest trade ever," John Paulson made his fortune in 2007 by shorting the real estate market by way of the collateralized-debt obligation market. Paulson founded Paulson & Co. in 1994 and was relatively unknown on Wall Street - that is, up to the financial crisis that began in 2007. Foreseeing the asset bubble in real estate, Paulson's funds made a reported $15 billion in 2007, while Paulson himself pocketed a tidy $3.7 billion. For profiting stupendously while the global economy staggered, Paulson came under intense scrutiny of the U.S. federal government during this time. Today, Paulson continues to manage Paulson & Co. and is worth roughly $11 billion.
The Bottom Line
Jones, Soros and Paulson all have one thing in common: their most lucrative trades were highly leveraged shorts. The conflict of interest is clear. Traders have every incentive to profit off of an imbalanced financial market, often at the expense of every other market player. Furthermore, their actions tend to prolong and exacerbate the initial financial imbalance, sometimes to the point of complete and total market failure. Should they have this capability? Well, that's for legislatures to decide.
The founder of Tudor Investment Corporation, a $12 billion hedge fund, Paul Tudor Jones made his fortune shorting the 1987 stock market crash. Jones was able to predict the multiplying effect that portfolio insurance would have on a bear market. Portfolio insurance, a popular risk management tool, involves buying index puts to lower one's portfolio risk. Thus, in a bear market, more and more investors will choose to employ their put options and drive the market down even further. Jones' bet paid off big: on Black Monday of 1987, he was able to triple his capital from his short positions. Jones is worth roughly $3.6 billion today and is currently managing his hedge fund.
George Soros (1930-Present)
George Soros is arguably the most well-known trader in the history of the business, known as "The Man Who Broke the Bank of England." In 1992, Soros made roughly $1 billion in a bet that the British pound would depreciate in value. At the time, the pound had been introduced into the European ERM rate - an exchange rate mechanism designed to keep its listed currencies within a set of defined parameters to increase systemic financial stability. With the help of his associates at his hedge fund, the Quantum Investment Fund, Soros noticed that the pound was not fundamentally strong enough to stay in the ERM, and built up a short position to the tune of $10 billion. Soros is currently worth an approximated $19 billion and is retired.
John Paulson (1955-Present)
Praised by some for executing the "greatest trade ever," John Paulson made his fortune in 2007 by shorting the real estate market by way of the collateralized-debt obligation market. Paulson founded Paulson & Co. in 1994 and was relatively unknown on Wall Street - that is, up to the financial crisis that began in 2007. Foreseeing the asset bubble in real estate, Paulson's funds made a reported $15 billion in 2007, while Paulson himself pocketed a tidy $3.7 billion. For profiting stupendously while the global economy staggered, Paulson came under intense scrutiny of the U.S. federal government during this time. Today, Paulson continues to manage Paulson & Co. and is worth roughly $11 billion.
The Bottom Line
Jones, Soros and Paulson all have one thing in common: their most lucrative trades were highly leveraged shorts. The conflict of interest is clear. Traders have every incentive to profit off of an imbalanced financial market, often at the expense of every other market player. Furthermore, their actions tend to prolong and exacerbate the initial financial imbalance, sometimes to the point of complete and total market failure. Should they have this capability? Well, that's for legislatures to decide.
Sunday, 6 October 2013
The 10 Choices Smart Men Make About Their Retirement
Retirement may
seem like a long way off to you -- maybe that’s why you minimize the
importance of planning for retirement today. But here’s another thought:
How expensive are your day-to-day living expenses going to be when you
retire?
Consider this: In 1963, a retiree had to pay $0.22 for a loaf of bread. In 2013, it’s close to $2. A gallon of gas in 1963 ran you about $0.30. Today, you’re paying over $3.50. And in 1963, if a retiree wanted to see the the Rolling Stones in concert he’d probably have to shell out a couple of bucks.Today, it will cost him more than a couple of Benjamins unless he wants to sit in the nosebleeds.
The fact that the Stones still tour may be due to the increased health and vitality of all seniors. That’s the good news. If you’re financially secure in your golden years and you stay in good physical shape, you’re going to be able to golf, jog, hike and travel the world for a very long time.
Of course it might also mean that Mick and Keith didn’t make the best retirement planning decisions. You don’t want to be punching a clock in your 70s like them do you? No. So take a second and review these 10 smart choices you can make today to put yourself in great shape for retirement.
1. Choose To Put 10% Of Your Paycheck In Your 401(k) Plan
The Nile River isn’t as long as the list of excuses you have for not doing this. You’re trying to pay off student loans. You’re trying to save for a house. You’re saving for a car, a wedding or a pair of Google Glasses as soon as they hit the market.
The fact is your employer-sponsored retirement savings plan is still the most convenient, powerful way to save for retirement. If your company offers a matching contribution then you should be contributing at least enough to get the maximum from them. Then try to increase your contributions a little bit every year. Remember, these are pretax contributions so the government is helping out by contributing some of the money you would have had withheld anyway. Talk to anyone who has been in a 401(k) plan for a long time and they’ll tell you two things: 1) You won’t miss your payroll deductions as much as you think you will; and 2) There is no way you’ll accumulate a sizable nest egg any other way.
2. Choose To Design A Suitable Investment Portfolio
Deciding how much to save is the easy part. Choosing where to invest your money gets a little trickier. Just remember this, it’s not about finding the hot funds or getting a good tip on a stock. If real estate is about location, location, location, then retirement investing is about diversification, diversification, diversification.
Most companies who provide investments or 401(k)s provide what are called suitability or risk-tolerance quizzes. You answer a few questions and then they’ll give you some sample portfolios; guidelines to follow when deciding how much to put in which funds. More recently, many mutual fund companies offer “target date” funds. The idea behind these funds is that you pick one fund based on a year close to when you’ll retire (say 2040) and that company will diversify your assets for you and gradually adjust your holdings to make them more conservative as you get close to your target retirement year. If you’re working with a financial advisor on other aspects of your financial life (life insurance, disability insurance), they might also be a good resource for helping make sure your portfolio is appropriate for you.
3. Choose To Meet With A Financial Professional
If you have a scratchy throat or a slight pain in your lower back, it’s OK to check WebMd to see if you can diagnosis your condition by yourself. But if your symptoms persist for more than a week, then there is a good chance you’re going to consult a doctor.
Q: How long is your retirement going to last?
A: Much longer than a week. Much, much longer.
Don’t be intimidated to sit down with someone whose living is to help people prepare for a comfortable retirement. Talk to your friends and family first. Find out if anyone knows a financial representative who is experienced and trustworthy. Or just contact a Farmers agent and ask about their financial planning services and they’ll help you with anything you need. Some financial instruments are complicated and you should have an experienced professional explain them to you.
4. Choose To Purchase A Suitable Amount Of Life Insurance
Think life insurance isn’t part of retirement? Think again. Many people are discovering the flexibility that permanent life insurance offers to a well thought-out retirement plan.
Unlike term life insurance, which is typically designed to expire in your retirement years, permanent life insurance stays in force. That kind of guaranteed death benefit allows you to spend your retirement savings freely without worrying about leaving no estate for your children or grandchildren.
Furthermore, the cash value of your policy can be accessed on a tax-favored basis, giving your some added flexibility in retirement.
5. Choose To Open A Roth IRA
The beautiful thing about saving with your employer’s 401(k) plan is that it allows you to save pre-tax money and accumulate investment gains on a tax-deferred basis. That’s pretty powerful. The downside to all of that is that Uncle Sam is going to collect taxes on every dime of that money at some point. If you do a really nice job of saving you might find yourself worrying about getting hit with a huge tax bill when you start to withdrawal from your 401(k) or traditional IRAs in retirement.
A Roth IRA is a good way to hedge your bets. If you’re eligible, you can contribute after-tax dollars to a Roth IRA and your investment earnings will accumulate tax free. If you have a long time to go to retirement, that’s a lot of years and a lot of tax-free money that can build up. That will give you some flexibility in retirement; the ability to withdrawal a large lump sum without having to worry about the tax implications. And you may not need that money right away in retirement, so it can stay invested and continue to accumulate tax free. If you pass away, you can pass it on to your heirs tax free. I’m sure they’ll be grateful.
6. Choose To Live Within Your Means
Start this habit today. It is the foundation of every prudent financial plan for everyone, everywhere at all times. The fact is that every person -- man or woman, rich or poor, young or old -- can get themselves into huge financial trouble when they spend more than they earn. Google "Nicolas Cage" and "bankruptcy" if you don’t believe me. Just look at the awful movies he’s had to make to dig himself out of the hole made for himself by spending too much.
This concept takes on heightened meaning for retirees. Most people in their 80s don’t have much earning power. If you spend too much in your early years of retirement and run out of savings, then you run out. Then you’ll be calling your kids for money and how demeaning will that be? Start sticking to a budget now.
7. Choose To Understand Annuities
Sometimes annuities get a bad rap from celebrity financial gurus with
really bad hairdos. Like a lot of financial instruments, however,
annuities sometimes make sense and sometimes they don’t.
They can come in handy when it comes time to start withdrawing from your retirement accounts. A big worry many retirees have is that they’ll outlive their life savings. To prevent that, you can purchase an annuity that will give you a lifetime stream of income. That’s real security and peace of mind. This isn’t something you want to shop for on your own, however. You’ll need a financial advisor to explain them to you.
8. Choose To Read Your Social Security Statement Every Year
Think the government will take care of you in retirement? The next time you get a social security statement in the mail, take a minute or two and read it. What’s that? You haven’t received a social security statement in the mail recently. Yes, because the government stopped sending them out a few years ago. It seems they couldn’t afford the postage. And you thought the social security system was in good shape?
In fact, social security should be around for you in some form when you retire. (Hard to imagine the politician who would risk taking that benefit away.) But don’t be surprised if the full retirement age gets pushed back. Currently it’s 67 for anyone born after 1959. You can go on the social security website, set up an account and view your estimated monthly benefit. The average payment in 2012 was $1,230 per month. Ask yourself if that amount is enough to live on in retirement. Then go and increase the contributions you make to your retirement plan.
9. Choose To Rollover Your Retirement Account When Changing Jobs
These days people change jobs much more frequently than in years past.
With most employers offering defined contribution pensions (like
401(k)s) many workers have to make a decision about what to do with the
amount they’ve accrued when they do take on a new position.
Here’s what you should not do: Cash it in. It’s very tempting. You might have some bills you’d like to pay off or you might think it’s a good idea to use your 401(k) money towards the purchase of a new car, but there are big downsides to doing that. First of all, you’ll pay income taxes and a 10% penalty on the amount you take out of your retirement plan (if you’re younger than 59½.). So, a lot more of that money will go to the IRS than you think. Then you’ll miss out on any future earnings that money would generate. Many people are finding themselves in the middle stages of their career, woefully behind the eight ball with regards to their retirement savings because they cashed in their 401(k) savings in their younger years. A direct rollover to an IRA or your new employer’s retirement plan will help you avoid that big tax bill and keep you on track for retirement.
10. Choose To Keep Your Cool When The Stock Market Takes A Dive
Do you remember way, way back in those crazy days of the latter part of 2008? Seems like just yesterday, doesn’t it? The U.S. economy teetered on the edge of a cliff. The headlines were unthinkable (Lehman Brothers going out of business? Seriously?) and the stock market dropped. Then it dropped some more. Then it kept on dropping.
And the people who really got hurt were the ones who were within a few years of retirement and had too much of their savings in the stock market. It was not unusual for a $300,000 401(k) account balance to drop below $200,000. Many near-retirees were looking at working a few more years than they wanted to. The other people who really got hurt were the people who moved their money out of the stock market after it took that dive. This was especially the case if they didn’t get back in to enjoy one of the sharpest rebounds the market has seen ever seen -- between March and September of 2009.
Today the market is at an all-time high, but I predict it’s going to drop again. Then it’s going to go back up. Then it’s going to drop. Don’t ask me when and how much. Just know that if it does take a dive and you have more than 10 years to go until retirement then you don’t need to panic. Riding that roller coaster is still the best way to enjoy long-term growth in your retirement account.
Consider this: In 1963, a retiree had to pay $0.22 for a loaf of bread. In 2013, it’s close to $2. A gallon of gas in 1963 ran you about $0.30. Today, you’re paying over $3.50. And in 1963, if a retiree wanted to see the the Rolling Stones in concert he’d probably have to shell out a couple of bucks.Today, it will cost him more than a couple of Benjamins unless he wants to sit in the nosebleeds.
The fact that the Stones still tour may be due to the increased health and vitality of all seniors. That’s the good news. If you’re financially secure in your golden years and you stay in good physical shape, you’re going to be able to golf, jog, hike and travel the world for a very long time.
Of course it might also mean that Mick and Keith didn’t make the best retirement planning decisions. You don’t want to be punching a clock in your 70s like them do you? No. So take a second and review these 10 smart choices you can make today to put yourself in great shape for retirement.
1. Choose To Put 10% Of Your Paycheck In Your 401(k) Plan
The Nile River isn’t as long as the list of excuses you have for not doing this. You’re trying to pay off student loans. You’re trying to save for a house. You’re saving for a car, a wedding or a pair of Google Glasses as soon as they hit the market.
The fact is your employer-sponsored retirement savings plan is still the most convenient, powerful way to save for retirement. If your company offers a matching contribution then you should be contributing at least enough to get the maximum from them. Then try to increase your contributions a little bit every year. Remember, these are pretax contributions so the government is helping out by contributing some of the money you would have had withheld anyway. Talk to anyone who has been in a 401(k) plan for a long time and they’ll tell you two things: 1) You won’t miss your payroll deductions as much as you think you will; and 2) There is no way you’ll accumulate a sizable nest egg any other way.
2. Choose To Design A Suitable Investment Portfolio
Deciding how much to save is the easy part. Choosing where to invest your money gets a little trickier. Just remember this, it’s not about finding the hot funds or getting a good tip on a stock. If real estate is about location, location, location, then retirement investing is about diversification, diversification, diversification.
Most companies who provide investments or 401(k)s provide what are called suitability or risk-tolerance quizzes. You answer a few questions and then they’ll give you some sample portfolios; guidelines to follow when deciding how much to put in which funds. More recently, many mutual fund companies offer “target date” funds. The idea behind these funds is that you pick one fund based on a year close to when you’ll retire (say 2040) and that company will diversify your assets for you and gradually adjust your holdings to make them more conservative as you get close to your target retirement year. If you’re working with a financial advisor on other aspects of your financial life (life insurance, disability insurance), they might also be a good resource for helping make sure your portfolio is appropriate for you.
3. Choose To Meet With A Financial Professional
If you have a scratchy throat or a slight pain in your lower back, it’s OK to check WebMd to see if you can diagnosis your condition by yourself. But if your symptoms persist for more than a week, then there is a good chance you’re going to consult a doctor.
Q: How long is your retirement going to last?
A: Much longer than a week. Much, much longer.
Don’t be intimidated to sit down with someone whose living is to help people prepare for a comfortable retirement. Talk to your friends and family first. Find out if anyone knows a financial representative who is experienced and trustworthy. Or just contact a Farmers agent and ask about their financial planning services and they’ll help you with anything you need. Some financial instruments are complicated and you should have an experienced professional explain them to you.
4. Choose To Purchase A Suitable Amount Of Life Insurance
Think life insurance isn’t part of retirement? Think again. Many people are discovering the flexibility that permanent life insurance offers to a well thought-out retirement plan.
Unlike term life insurance, which is typically designed to expire in your retirement years, permanent life insurance stays in force. That kind of guaranteed death benefit allows you to spend your retirement savings freely without worrying about leaving no estate for your children or grandchildren.
Furthermore, the cash value of your policy can be accessed on a tax-favored basis, giving your some added flexibility in retirement.
5. Choose To Open A Roth IRA
The beautiful thing about saving with your employer’s 401(k) plan is that it allows you to save pre-tax money and accumulate investment gains on a tax-deferred basis. That’s pretty powerful. The downside to all of that is that Uncle Sam is going to collect taxes on every dime of that money at some point. If you do a really nice job of saving you might find yourself worrying about getting hit with a huge tax bill when you start to withdrawal from your 401(k) or traditional IRAs in retirement.
A Roth IRA is a good way to hedge your bets. If you’re eligible, you can contribute after-tax dollars to a Roth IRA and your investment earnings will accumulate tax free. If you have a long time to go to retirement, that’s a lot of years and a lot of tax-free money that can build up. That will give you some flexibility in retirement; the ability to withdrawal a large lump sum without having to worry about the tax implications. And you may not need that money right away in retirement, so it can stay invested and continue to accumulate tax free. If you pass away, you can pass it on to your heirs tax free. I’m sure they’ll be grateful.
6. Choose To Live Within Your Means
Start this habit today. It is the foundation of every prudent financial plan for everyone, everywhere at all times. The fact is that every person -- man or woman, rich or poor, young or old -- can get themselves into huge financial trouble when they spend more than they earn. Google "Nicolas Cage" and "bankruptcy" if you don’t believe me. Just look at the awful movies he’s had to make to dig himself out of the hole made for himself by spending too much.
This concept takes on heightened meaning for retirees. Most people in their 80s don’t have much earning power. If you spend too much in your early years of retirement and run out of savings, then you run out. Then you’ll be calling your kids for money and how demeaning will that be? Start sticking to a budget now.
7. Choose To Understand Annuities
Sometimes annuities get a bad rap from celebrity financial gurus with
really bad hairdos. Like a lot of financial instruments, however,
annuities sometimes make sense and sometimes they don’t.They can come in handy when it comes time to start withdrawing from your retirement accounts. A big worry many retirees have is that they’ll outlive their life savings. To prevent that, you can purchase an annuity that will give you a lifetime stream of income. That’s real security and peace of mind. This isn’t something you want to shop for on your own, however. You’ll need a financial advisor to explain them to you.
8. Choose To Read Your Social Security Statement Every Year
Think the government will take care of you in retirement? The next time you get a social security statement in the mail, take a minute or two and read it. What’s that? You haven’t received a social security statement in the mail recently. Yes, because the government stopped sending them out a few years ago. It seems they couldn’t afford the postage. And you thought the social security system was in good shape?
In fact, social security should be around for you in some form when you retire. (Hard to imagine the politician who would risk taking that benefit away.) But don’t be surprised if the full retirement age gets pushed back. Currently it’s 67 for anyone born after 1959. You can go on the social security website, set up an account and view your estimated monthly benefit. The average payment in 2012 was $1,230 per month. Ask yourself if that amount is enough to live on in retirement. Then go and increase the contributions you make to your retirement plan.
9. Choose To Rollover Your Retirement Account When Changing Jobs
These days people change jobs much more frequently than in years past.
With most employers offering defined contribution pensions (like
401(k)s) many workers have to make a decision about what to do with the
amount they’ve accrued when they do take on a new position. Here’s what you should not do: Cash it in. It’s very tempting. You might have some bills you’d like to pay off or you might think it’s a good idea to use your 401(k) money towards the purchase of a new car, but there are big downsides to doing that. First of all, you’ll pay income taxes and a 10% penalty on the amount you take out of your retirement plan (if you’re younger than 59½.). So, a lot more of that money will go to the IRS than you think. Then you’ll miss out on any future earnings that money would generate. Many people are finding themselves in the middle stages of their career, woefully behind the eight ball with regards to their retirement savings because they cashed in their 401(k) savings in their younger years. A direct rollover to an IRA or your new employer’s retirement plan will help you avoid that big tax bill and keep you on track for retirement.
10. Choose To Keep Your Cool When The Stock Market Takes A Dive
Do you remember way, way back in those crazy days of the latter part of 2008? Seems like just yesterday, doesn’t it? The U.S. economy teetered on the edge of a cliff. The headlines were unthinkable (Lehman Brothers going out of business? Seriously?) and the stock market dropped. Then it dropped some more. Then it kept on dropping.
And the people who really got hurt were the ones who were within a few years of retirement and had too much of their savings in the stock market. It was not unusual for a $300,000 401(k) account balance to drop below $200,000. Many near-retirees were looking at working a few more years than they wanted to. The other people who really got hurt were the people who moved their money out of the stock market after it took that dive. This was especially the case if they didn’t get back in to enjoy one of the sharpest rebounds the market has seen ever seen -- between March and September of 2009.
Today the market is at an all-time high, but I predict it’s going to drop again. Then it’s going to go back up. Then it’s going to drop. Don’t ask me when and how much. Just know that if it does take a dive and you have more than 10 years to go until retirement then you don’t need to panic. Riding that roller coaster is still the best way to enjoy long-term growth in your retirement account.
Saturday, 5 October 2013
What are the five most important lessons NOT learned in business school?
2. People are absolutely key. Whether it's investing in an entrepreneur, taking money from an angel investor, or hiring a senior manager, A-caliber people are worth 10x those of B-caliber.
3. Cash is king. Lots of time is spent in business school looking at cash flow statements and analyses, but typically from a larger corporate perspective. But the one lesson that—one way or another—gets seared into the brain of every single entrepreneur is that the presence or absence of cash is completely deterministic for a business. Remember the Golden Rule of early stage finance: "the person with the gold makes the rules."
4. Keep everything in perspective. Bad stuff happens in every company, in every field, to every person. When one is young and starting out, it can seem like every setback is the end of the world. The more experience one has, the more one realizes that nothing is permanent except death. Perspective helps one 'do nuance', and makes it easier to not sweat the small stuff.
5. Technology is changing exponentially. This certainly wasn't taught when I was in business school, and it isn't taught in many places today. But it's the key tenet of Singularity University (where I founded the Finance, Entrepreneurship & Economics program) and it fundamentally affects every single business today that wants to have any hope of surviving, let alone thriving.
7 Things We Learned About Success From The Steve Jobs
Would you take career advice from a shoeless man with long scraggly hair
and no college degree? Probably not. But what if we told you that same
man invented the personal computer and founded a visionary tech company,
which is now the leader in its field?
Steve Jobs was an oxymoron like that, and this has never been more evident than it is in Jobs, the brand new biopic about his life. The movie paints Jobs as a laid-back tech visionary who didn't work well with others, and may have stepped on a few friends and colleagues on his way to fortune and fame. It was habits like this that got him pushed out of Apple -- the brand he built -- in 1985. But when Apple's stock was plummeting, the company realized they needed the passion and focus that got Jobs shafted in the first place. They brought him back as CEO and he brought the brand back with products like the iMac and iPod. Clearly, the man was indispensable, which is proven by the fact that you are most likely reading this on your iPhone or iPad right now.
Steve Jobs provided us not only with gadgets that changed our lives but lessons that can change our careers. So how can you build a business like his? Take a few tips from the man's many mistakes and successes shown in this film. Study up. Then go off and invent something.
1. Strive For Innovation
“You can’t look at your competitor and say, 'We are going to do it better.' You have to look at your competitor, and say, 'We’re going to do it differently.'” Wanting to surpass his competition was never enough for Jobs, which is why he was often late to jump on a bandwagon. What mattered to him was putting out a product that was innovative. What was the first MP3 player to come out and what was the most innovative one?
2. Watch Your Back
Jobs learned the hard way that even when you are at the top of a company, you are never safe. Even if you go out of your way to bring someone into the company, that person can turn around and get rid of you. It happened to Jobs, and he also did it to others. Don’t get too comfortable.
3. Everything Is A Pressing Issue
Steve felt very strongly about seeing each task as equally important. If you didn't feel like that, he reasoned, why would you bother completing anything but the most pressing one? We learned from the film that if he hadn’t been so adamant about this, we wouldn't have as many fonts to choose from. We know you can’t part with Comic Sans MS.
4. Simplicity Is Okay
You don’t need to work out of a fancy office or wear an expensive suit
to be taken seriously. In fact, you don’t even need shoes. What you do
need is confidence in a product that is actually good. Just look at
Apple; it started out as a handful of deadbeat-looking guys working in a
garage barefoot, but it was their idea and passion that sold the brand.
5. You Only Need One Person To Be Onboard
When Jobs and Wozniak first presented their product to a room full of techies, only one man showed a semblance of interest. While it was disheartening, they only needed one first customer. When Jobs called hundreds of people to try to find investors, and only one man answered, he became their first investor. Don’t get discouraged when only one person shows interest; it only takes one person to help you get past that first step.
6. Have Smart Friends
Friends who will buy you beers and let you crash on their couch are great, but will they be able to help you when you are on a deadline to fix a video game and you have no idea how to do it? We didn’t think so. Steve surrounded himself with brilliant people, including Steve Wozniak, who was his partner in inventing the personal computer. Surround yourself with minds who will inspire you to create and do great things. When you’re in a bind, you’ll be grateful to have a guy like Woz around.
7. You Don't Need An Ivy League Degree
We learned from Mark Zuckerberg that you don’t have to graduate from Harvard to become a success. But not only did Jobs drop out of college, he dropped out of a small liberal arts school. And after that, he invented Apple. Ivy League, schmivy league.
Steve Jobs was an oxymoron like that, and this has never been more evident than it is in Jobs, the brand new biopic about his life. The movie paints Jobs as a laid-back tech visionary who didn't work well with others, and may have stepped on a few friends and colleagues on his way to fortune and fame. It was habits like this that got him pushed out of Apple -- the brand he built -- in 1985. But when Apple's stock was plummeting, the company realized they needed the passion and focus that got Jobs shafted in the first place. They brought him back as CEO and he brought the brand back with products like the iMac and iPod. Clearly, the man was indispensable, which is proven by the fact that you are most likely reading this on your iPhone or iPad right now.
Steve Jobs provided us not only with gadgets that changed our lives but lessons that can change our careers. So how can you build a business like his? Take a few tips from the man's many mistakes and successes shown in this film. Study up. Then go off and invent something.
1. Strive For Innovation
“You can’t look at your competitor and say, 'We are going to do it better.' You have to look at your competitor, and say, 'We’re going to do it differently.'” Wanting to surpass his competition was never enough for Jobs, which is why he was often late to jump on a bandwagon. What mattered to him was putting out a product that was innovative. What was the first MP3 player to come out and what was the most innovative one?
2. Watch Your Back
Jobs learned the hard way that even when you are at the top of a company, you are never safe. Even if you go out of your way to bring someone into the company, that person can turn around and get rid of you. It happened to Jobs, and he also did it to others. Don’t get too comfortable.
3. Everything Is A Pressing Issue
Steve felt very strongly about seeing each task as equally important. If you didn't feel like that, he reasoned, why would you bother completing anything but the most pressing one? We learned from the film that if he hadn’t been so adamant about this, we wouldn't have as many fonts to choose from. We know you can’t part with Comic Sans MS.
4. Simplicity Is Okay
You don’t need to work out of a fancy office or wear an expensive suit
to be taken seriously. In fact, you don’t even need shoes. What you do
need is confidence in a product that is actually good. Just look at
Apple; it started out as a handful of deadbeat-looking guys working in a
garage barefoot, but it was their idea and passion that sold the brand.
5. You Only Need One Person To Be Onboard
When Jobs and Wozniak first presented their product to a room full of techies, only one man showed a semblance of interest. While it was disheartening, they only needed one first customer. When Jobs called hundreds of people to try to find investors, and only one man answered, he became their first investor. Don’t get discouraged when only one person shows interest; it only takes one person to help you get past that first step.
6. Have Smart Friends
Friends who will buy you beers and let you crash on their couch are great, but will they be able to help you when you are on a deadline to fix a video game and you have no idea how to do it? We didn’t think so. Steve surrounded himself with brilliant people, including Steve Wozniak, who was his partner in inventing the personal computer. Surround yourself with minds who will inspire you to create and do great things. When you’re in a bind, you’ll be grateful to have a guy like Woz around.
7. You Don't Need An Ivy League Degree
We learned from Mark Zuckerberg that you don’t have to graduate from Harvard to become a success. But not only did Jobs drop out of college, he dropped out of a small liberal arts school. And after that, he invented Apple. Ivy League, schmivy league.
Dampak Ditutupnya Pemerintah Amerika
Pemerintah Amerika kembali ditutup untuk pertama kalinya sejak 1996,
seiring tidak tercapainya kesepakatan di Kongres semalam, di mana Partai
Republik menolak usulan untuk menaikkan batas utang atau debt ceiling.
Sebagian kantor pemerintah dan layanan umum terpaksa ditutup, karena
pemerintah Amerika tidak lagi sanggup membayar biaya operasional dan
gaji para pegawainya.
Berikut adalah berbagai dampak dari kegagalan tercapainya kesepakatan di Kongres Amerika semalam:
Berikut adalah berbagai dampak dari kegagalan tercapainya kesepakatan di Kongres Amerika semalam:
- Sekitar 700.000 pegawai negeri Amerika diberi cuti karena negara tidak bisa membayar mereka untuk sementara waktu.
- Para pekerja di bidang militer juga tidak akan mendapatkan gaji, namun mereka akan tetap menjalankan tugas-tugasnya
- Taman-taman nasional, seperti Grand Canyon dan Yellowstone akan tutup sementara waktu, wisatawan tidak bisa mengunjungi tempat-tempat tersebut.
- Museum dan kebun binatang tidak lagi beroperasi, termasuk tempat-tempat wisata terkenal seperti Patung Liberty di New York dan Independence Hall di Philadelphia.
- Pemberian kredit untuk rumah dan juga usaha kecil untuk sementara waktu akan dihentikan, hal ini dikhawatirkan akan membawa dampak susulan di kemudian hari.
- Ijin untuk alkohol, tembakau dan senjata api akan sulit didapat, karena birokrasi yang menangani perijinan tersebut akan tutup untuk sementara waktu.
- Tunjangan untuk pensiunan, termasuk pensiunan militer, akan ditunda untuk sementara waktu.
- IRS (Internal Revenue Service) akan libur untuk sementara waktu, bantuan bagi para pembayar pajak tidak akan tersedia hingga mereka kembali beroperasi.
- CDC (Centers for Desease Control) berhenti beroperasi, pencegahan dan pengawasan terhadap penyebaran penyakit menjadi terhenti dan kesehatan masyarakat akan terganggu.
- Petugas kebersihan dan penjaga parkir tidak akan bekerja untuk sementara waktu, fasilitas umum yang masih berjalan saat ini hanya sekolah dan transportasi umum.
Market Outlook – 3 Oktober 2013
USD masih terus berada di bawah tekanan, menyusul penutupan
pemerintahan Amerika. USD terlihat melemah terhadap mata uang lainnya,
EUR/USD sukses naik menembus 1,3600 dan GBP/USD tampak kokoh di atas
1,6200. Sedangkan harga emas juga turut meroket, kembali di atas $1.300
setelah sebelumnya sempat terputuk ke kisaran $1.280.
Sesi Asia hari ini hanya memiliki satu data ekonomi saja yang dijadwalkan rilis, yakni Non Manufacturing PMI China pukul 07:55 WIB tadi. Data ekonomi selanjutnya baru akan dirilis di sesi Eropa, dimulai dengan angka Halifax HPI Inggris (konsensus 0,6%) pukul 14:00 WIB, disusul serangkaian Services PMI Eurozone oleh Markit, dimulai dari Spanyol (konsensus 50,9) pada pukul 14:13 WIB,Italia (konsensus 49,1) pada pukul 14:43 WIB, dilanjutkan Perancis (konsensus 50,7) dan Jerman (konsensus 54,4) berturut-turut pada pukul 14:48 WIB dan 14:53 WIB. Sementara Services PMI Eurozone sendiri akan dirilis 5 menit setelahnya, dengan konsensus sebesar 52,1. Angka Services PMI Inggris akan dirilis pukul 15:28 WIB, dengan perkiraan sebesar 60,0, sedikit di bawah angka bulan lalu sebesar 60,5. Angka Retail Sales Eurozone juga akan menjadi sorotan pada pukul 16:00 WIB, dengan konsensus sebesar -1,5%.
Di sesi New York, ISM dijadwalkan akan merilis Non-Manufacturing Index Amerika pada pukul 21:00 WIB, dengan konsensus sebesar 57,2. Sementara beberapa data ekonomi Negeri Paman Sam, seperti Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending dan Factory Orders tampaknya akan ditunda perilisannya, karena tidak beroperasinya sebagian besar kantor pemerintahan di sana.
Sesi Asia hari ini hanya memiliki satu data ekonomi saja yang dijadwalkan rilis, yakni Non Manufacturing PMI China pukul 07:55 WIB tadi. Data ekonomi selanjutnya baru akan dirilis di sesi Eropa, dimulai dengan angka Halifax HPI Inggris (konsensus 0,6%) pukul 14:00 WIB, disusul serangkaian Services PMI Eurozone oleh Markit, dimulai dari Spanyol (konsensus 50,9) pada pukul 14:13 WIB,Italia (konsensus 49,1) pada pukul 14:43 WIB, dilanjutkan Perancis (konsensus 50,7) dan Jerman (konsensus 54,4) berturut-turut pada pukul 14:48 WIB dan 14:53 WIB. Sementara Services PMI Eurozone sendiri akan dirilis 5 menit setelahnya, dengan konsensus sebesar 52,1. Angka Services PMI Inggris akan dirilis pukul 15:28 WIB, dengan perkiraan sebesar 60,0, sedikit di bawah angka bulan lalu sebesar 60,5. Angka Retail Sales Eurozone juga akan menjadi sorotan pada pukul 16:00 WIB, dengan konsensus sebesar -1,5%.
Di sesi New York, ISM dijadwalkan akan merilis Non-Manufacturing Index Amerika pada pukul 21:00 WIB, dengan konsensus sebesar 57,2. Sementara beberapa data ekonomi Negeri Paman Sam, seperti Unemployment Claims, Construction Spending dan Factory Orders tampaknya akan ditunda perilisannya, karena tidak beroperasinya sebagian besar kantor pemerintahan di sana.
Leverage dan Margin
Apa itu Leverage?
Leverage adalah pinjaman dari broker yang diberikan
kepada trader, sehingga dana trader memiliki daya beli yang lebih besar.
Leverage dinotifikasikan sebagai rasio perbandingan, misal 1:1, 1:100,
1:500, 1:1000 dan sebagainya. Artinya, kalau ada dana $100 di leverage
1:100 maka $100 tersebut memiliki kekuatan setara $10.000. Jika leverage
1:500, maka dana $100 tadi memiliki kemampuan untuk melakukan transaksi
setara $50.000 atau 500x lipat lebih besar dari nominal dana itu
sendiri.Apa itu Margin?
Margin merupakan jaminan yang diberikan kepada broker setiap kali membuka posisi. Besar kecilnya margin dipengaruhi oleh leverage dan besarnya volume trading (lot) yang dibuka oleh trader. Rumus perhitungan margin adalah : Leverage x Volume (Lot) x Contract Size.ILUSTRASI
Untuk mempermudah pemahaman, mari kita simak ilustrasi di bawah ini. Broker yang diambil memiliki contract size 1 lot = $100.000 dan fasilitas leverage hingga 1:500.Contract Size
Untuk contract size, harus dikonversikan ke USD. Pair yang berawalan dengan USD/xxx seperti USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, dsb memiliki contract size 1 lot = $100.000 (sudah dalam $, tidak perlu dikonversi). Sedangkan yang berawalan dengan mata uang non USD, misal EUR/USD memiliki kontrak size 1 lot = EUR 100.000 yang artinya setara dengan( EUR 100.000 x 1,435 ) USD atau $143.500 pada saat kurs EUR/USD 1,435. Berarti, jika EUR/USD naik menjadi 1,45 maka contract size akan berubah lagi.
Leverage 1:1 – 1 lot EUR/USD di harga 1,4350
Margin yang diperlukan = (1/1) x 1 lot x (EUR 100.000 x 1,4350) = $143.500 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana MINIMAL (Free Margin) $143.500 untuk bisa membuka posisi 1 lot EUR/USD di leverage 1:1
Leverage 1:100 – 1 lot EUR/USD di harga 1,4350
Margin yang diperlukan =(1/100) x 1 lot x (EUR 100.000 x 1,4350) = $1.435 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana MINIMAL(Free Margin) $1.435 untuk bisa membuka posisi 1 lot EUR/USD di leverage 1:100
Leverage 1:500 – 1 lot EUR/USD di harga 1,4350
Margin yang diperlukan = (1/500) x 1 lot x (EUR 100.000 x 1,4350) = $287 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana MINIMAL(Free Margin) $287 untuk bisa membuka posisi 1 lot EUR/USD di leverage 1:500
Leverage 1:500 – 0,1 lot EUR/USD di harga 1,4350
Margin yang diperlukan = (1/500) x 0,1 lot x (EUR 100.000 x 1,4350) = $28,7 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana (Free Margin) HANYA $28,7 untuk bisa membuka posisi 0,1 lot EUR/USD di leverage 1:500
Leverage 1:500 – 1 lot USD/JPY di harga berapapun (karena contract size sudah dalam USD)
Margin yang diperlukan = (1/500) x 1 lot x ($100.000) = $200 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana MINIMAL (Free Margin) $200 untuk bisa membuka posisi 1 lot USD/JPY di leverage 1:500
Leverage 1:500 – 0,1 lot USD/JPY di harga berapapun (karena contract size sudah dalam USD)
Margin yang diperlukan = (1/500) x 0,1 lot x ($100.000) = $20 — Artinya di sini, dibutuhkan dana (Free Margin) HANYA $20 untuk bisa membuka posisi 1 lot USD/JPY di leverage 1:500
Kesalahan Persepsi
Seringkali terdapat kesalahan persepsi bahwa profit dan loss, atau nilai per pip antara 1:1 dan 1:500 berbeda. Pandangan ini tidaklah benar, kita ambil contoh di FXOpen, 1 lot pada 1:1 bernilai $10/pip maka di 1:500 pun 1 lot akan bernilai $10/pip. Yang berbeda akibat leverage hanya besaran margin, sehingga mempengaruhi besarnya lot maksimal yang bisa dibuka. Misal Anda memiliki dana di $1000, maka di 1:500 bisa membuka hingga 5 lot USD/JPY sedangkan di 1:100 hanya bisa membuka 1 lot USD/JPY saja.PERINGATAN
Leverage menguntungkan di satu sisi, karena akan memberikan keuntungan yang lebih besar dan mengijinkan kita bermain forex dengan modal yang lebih kecil. Namun di sisi lain, dengan leverage 1:500 kita bisa membuka posisi yang jauh dari kemampuan dana kita. Oleh karena itu, bijaksanalah dengan leverage dan margin Anda, karena kerugian yang diderita bisa lebih besar dari kemampuan kita, akibat kurangnya pemahaman terhadap resiko dari leverage dan margin ini.
Hedging – Proteksi atau Blunder?
Istilah hedging seringkali kita dengar dalam dunia forex, secara umum
hedging dapat diartikan membuka dua posisi berlawanan (buy dan sell)
pada satu mata uang yang sama. Hedging ditujukan untuk memproteksi
profit yang telah didapat agar tidak berkurang akibat volatilitas pasar
atau kemungkinan harga berbalik arah. Selain untuk proteksi profit,
hedging terkadang digunakan oleh para trader untuk membatasi resiko
ketika posisi yang dibuka tidak tepat.
Untuk skenario kedua, hedging bisa memberikan proteksi bagi dana Anda, namun juga bisa menjadi bumerang. Pada saat seorang trader mengalami floating negatif dan melakukan hedging dengan membuka posisi sebaliknya pada pair yang sama, maka tidak hanya loss yang dibatasi, melainkan potensi profit juga akan menjadi terbatas. Satu-satunya jalan keluar yang memungkinkan adalah Anda menutup posisi yang telah profit tepat di saat harga akan berbalik arah, yang mana hal ini cukup sulit dilakukan oleh trader pemula. Selain itu, kadang akan dibutuhkan waktu yang lama, bahkan sangat lama, untuk melepas salah satu posisi yang saling terkunci tersebut, oleh karenanya sistem hedging ini akan sulit diterapkan oleh trader short time.
Kebanyakan trader pemula melepaskan salah satu posisi pada saat yang
tidak tepat, sehingga akan menderita kerugian yang lebih besar di
kemudian waktu. Contoh yang lazim terjadi, seorang trader melakukan buy
USD/JPY dan harga bergerak turun, sehingga ia memutuskan untuk melakukan
sell pada pair yang sama. Setelah melihat pergerakan ke bawah berakhir,
maka si trader menutup posisi sell dan menganggap harga akan segera
naik kembali, namun ternyata harga hanya terkoreksi sedikit saja dan
kembali melanjutkan tren ke bawah, memaksa si trader untuk membuka
posisi sell di harga yang lebih rendah. Tentunya hal ini berlawanan
dengan konsep “beli saat harga rendah dan jual saat harga tinggi”.
Setiap kali membuka posisi baru untuk melakukan hedge, si trader harus
membayar spread yang tentunya juga memperbesar kerugian yang diderita.
Jadi, tanpa pengalaman yang cukup, hedging justru akan mengundang resiko yang lebih besar. Oleh karena itu, pertimbangkanlah untuk menutup posisi yang salah dan mengakui kesalahan analisa Anda, lalu mulai dengan posisi baru yang bisa mendatangkan profit lebih besar.
Untuk skenario kedua, hedging bisa memberikan proteksi bagi dana Anda, namun juga bisa menjadi bumerang. Pada saat seorang trader mengalami floating negatif dan melakukan hedging dengan membuka posisi sebaliknya pada pair yang sama, maka tidak hanya loss yang dibatasi, melainkan potensi profit juga akan menjadi terbatas. Satu-satunya jalan keluar yang memungkinkan adalah Anda menutup posisi yang telah profit tepat di saat harga akan berbalik arah, yang mana hal ini cukup sulit dilakukan oleh trader pemula. Selain itu, kadang akan dibutuhkan waktu yang lama, bahkan sangat lama, untuk melepas salah satu posisi yang saling terkunci tersebut, oleh karenanya sistem hedging ini akan sulit diterapkan oleh trader short time.
Kebanyakan trader pemula melepaskan salah satu posisi pada saat yang
tidak tepat, sehingga akan menderita kerugian yang lebih besar di
kemudian waktu. Contoh yang lazim terjadi, seorang trader melakukan buy
USD/JPY dan harga bergerak turun, sehingga ia memutuskan untuk melakukan
sell pada pair yang sama. Setelah melihat pergerakan ke bawah berakhir,
maka si trader menutup posisi sell dan menganggap harga akan segera
naik kembali, namun ternyata harga hanya terkoreksi sedikit saja dan
kembali melanjutkan tren ke bawah, memaksa si trader untuk membuka
posisi sell di harga yang lebih rendah. Tentunya hal ini berlawanan
dengan konsep “beli saat harga rendah dan jual saat harga tinggi”.
Setiap kali membuka posisi baru untuk melakukan hedge, si trader harus
membayar spread yang tentunya juga memperbesar kerugian yang diderita.Jadi, tanpa pengalaman yang cukup, hedging justru akan mengundang resiko yang lebih besar. Oleh karena itu, pertimbangkanlah untuk menutup posisi yang salah dan mengakui kesalahan analisa Anda, lalu mulai dengan posisi baru yang bisa mendatangkan profit lebih besar.
Trading Lebih Dari Sedekar Uang
Kata ‘loss‘ pasti sudah tidak asing lagi bagi Anda para trader. Bagi Anda yang sempat mengalami loss besar ataupun loss
beruntun, kemudian melihat balance akun Anda tergerus, janganlah
berkecil hati. Selalu ada alasan dibalik setiap kegagalan dan selalu ada
jalan untuk menjadi lebih baik lagi.Trading forex tidak sekedar soal uang saja, melainkan juga memberikan sejumlah pelajaran lain yang bisa Anda terapkan di kehidupan. Pelajaran paling penting adalah bagaimana Anda mencari dan menemukan peluang, kemudian memanfaatkan peluang tersebut untuk mendatangkan keuntungan. Analisa peluang yang tepat menghasilkan keuntungan yang sepadan.
Pelajaran lain adalah kemampuan observasi, dan hal ini akan sangat membantu dalam pencarian peluang tadi. Kenapa trading bisa mengajarkan Anda kemampuan observasi? Tentu saja bisa, karena sebagai trader Anda akan didorong untuk mengamati berbagai pola pergerakan, mencari alasan yang mendukung ‘mengapa Anda perlu membuka buy atau sell di sini?’. Kemampuan observasi akan membantu memperkecil resiko dan memberikan dasar yang kuat dalam pengambilan keputusan trading.
Dari kedua hal tadi, Anda bisa mulai menyusun rencana trading yang lebih baik. Apabila Anda benar-benar serius dalam mengasah kedua kemampuan ini, Anda bisa meminimalisir resiko, tahu kapan saatnya masuk dan keluar pasar, serta kapan saatnya berlibur, terlebih lagi Anda selalu tahu mengapa posisi buy atau sell yang dipilih. Kedua hal di atas memang bukan pelajaran satu dua hari, namun kelak keduanya akan menjadi kemampuan berharga yang bisa diterapkan dalam kehidupan sehari-hari, tidak hanya menjadi trader yang lebih baik, tetapi juga pribadi yang lebih baik.
Thursday, 3 October 2013
4 Faktor ‘Pengacau’ Rencana Trading
Berikut adalah hal-hal yang bisa membuat trader terkadang sulit
melakukan analisa dan eksekusi trading sesuai dengan rencana yang sudah
ditentukan sebelumnya:
Keberhasilan meraih profit terus-menerus cenderung membuat trader
merasa sangat percaya diri. Namun, terkadang kepercayaan diri tersebut
membuatnya menjadi tidak lagi berhati-hati, dengan membuka posisi yang
lebih beresiko atau membiarkan posisi trading negatif berlarut-larut.
Sebaliknya, kepercayaan diri yang terlalu rendah juga akan membuat Anda keluar dari rencana trading awal. Hal ini seringkali disebabkan oleh banyaknya loss yang telah dialami. Rasa takut akan timbulnya kerugian bisa membuat trader menjadi semakin sulit mengambil keputusan membuka posisi, walaupun dia telah melihat peluang untuk meraih profit. Trader menjadi tidak yakin akan kemampuannya menganalisa market.
Cobalah untuk melakukan trading dengan satu posisi setiap saat. Apabila pikiran Anda terfokus pada satu posisi saja, akan lebih mudah untuk memantaunya. Trik ini juga bisa membantu Anda untuk mengabaikan kesuksesan atau kegagalan di masa lalu.
Beberapa trader seringkali mencoba membuka posisi walaupun hampir tidak ada pergerakan, dipicu oleh tingkat kebosanan yang sudah tinggi. Mereka melakukan trading yang biasanya tidak akan mereka lakukan dalam kondisi normal, yang mana tidak lagi sesuai dengan rencana trading awal. Tidak jarang trading yang demikian akan berakibat buruk.
Apabila Anda mulai bosan, kenapa tidak meninggalkannya sejenak? Usahakan untuk tidak mengabaikan rencana trading Anda.
Semua pengalih perhatian ini bisa dengan mudah menghancurkan rencana trading Anda. Akan menjadi semakin buruk apabila setelah terlambat mengikuti pergerakan pasar, trader justru mencoba peruntungan dengan masuk ke pasar setelah pergerakan usai.
Satu-satunya cara mengatasi kelelahan adalah dengan beristirahat. Sesekali tinggalkan trading Anda sejenak untuk mengistirahatkan pikiran.
1. Kepercayaan Diri
Sebaliknya, kepercayaan diri yang terlalu rendah juga akan membuat Anda keluar dari rencana trading awal. Hal ini seringkali disebabkan oleh banyaknya loss yang telah dialami. Rasa takut akan timbulnya kerugian bisa membuat trader menjadi semakin sulit mengambil keputusan membuka posisi, walaupun dia telah melihat peluang untuk meraih profit. Trader menjadi tidak yakin akan kemampuannya menganalisa market.
Cobalah untuk melakukan trading dengan satu posisi setiap saat. Apabila pikiran Anda terfokus pada satu posisi saja, akan lebih mudah untuk memantaunya. Trik ini juga bisa membantu Anda untuk mengabaikan kesuksesan atau kegagalan di masa lalu.
2. Tingkat Kebosanan
Walaupun market selalu aktif selama 24 jam, namun trader tidak akan mampu mengikutinya secara terus-menerus selama 24 jam setiap hari. Apalagi ketika market hampir tidak bergerak, biasanya membuat trader bosan menunggu hingga munculnya pergerakan yang berarti.Beberapa trader seringkali mencoba membuka posisi walaupun hampir tidak ada pergerakan, dipicu oleh tingkat kebosanan yang sudah tinggi. Mereka melakukan trading yang biasanya tidak akan mereka lakukan dalam kondisi normal, yang mana tidak lagi sesuai dengan rencana trading awal. Tidak jarang trading yang demikian akan berakibat buruk.
Apabila Anda mulai bosan, kenapa tidak meninggalkannya sejenak? Usahakan untuk tidak mengabaikan rencana trading Anda.
3. Hal Lain yang Menyita Perhatian
Menghindari kebosanan merupakan hal yang baik, namun jangan sampai Anda menjadi lupa dengan trading Anda. Terkadang trader beristirahat sejenak dengan mengunjungi situs jejaring sosial seperti Facebook dan Twitter, membaca berita di berbagai situs, atau melihat skor pertanding sepak bola. Karena terlalu asik dengan hiburan tersebut, Anda pun melupakan trading Anda. Bisa saja Anda melewatkan pergerakan market yang seharusnya bisa mendatangkan profit.Semua pengalih perhatian ini bisa dengan mudah menghancurkan rencana trading Anda. Akan menjadi semakin buruk apabila setelah terlambat mengikuti pergerakan pasar, trader justru mencoba peruntungan dengan masuk ke pasar setelah pergerakan usai.
4. Kelelahan
Kelelahan mampu membuat Anda kehilangan konsentrasi, memperlambat reaksi, bahkan membuat otak tidak lagi bisa berpikir secara jernih. Hal ini akan berujung pada pengambilan keputusan yang tidak tepat.Satu-satunya cara mengatasi kelelahan adalah dengan beristirahat. Sesekali tinggalkan trading Anda sejenak untuk mengistirahatkan pikiran.
5 Faktor Penyebab Kegagalan dalam Trading
Dalam dunia forex, di samping trader-trader yang sudah berhasil dan sukses, ada pula trader-trader yang masih gagal,
bahkan sebagian besar adalah pemula. Trader awam biasanya tertarik
untuk mencoba setelah melihat trader yang sudah berhasil, dengan asumsi
bahwa forex mudah untuk dikuasai dan segera bisa sukses seperti mereka.
Namun, ternyata tidak sedikit trader pemula yang dalam jangka waktu
pendek sudah pensiun dari trading-nya, bahkan menyerah dan ‘berjanji’
tidak akan menyentuh dunia forex lagi.‘Mengapa gagal?’ — Pertanyaan introspeksi tersebut perlu dicari jawabannya. Berikut kami coba rangkumkan sejumlah alasan mengapa kebanyakan trader pemula mengalami kegagalan dan mungkin salah satunya menjawab pertanyaan rekan-rekan trader sekalian:
1. Ekspektasi Yang Tidak Realistis
Pemula di dunia forex banyak yang tertarik untuk mencoba forex, tetapi enggan untuk mempelajarinya dengan sungguh-sungguh. Sebagian besar ingin segera mulai trading dan meraih profit secepat mungkin dan sebanyak mungkin. Waktu pembelajaran yang merupakan fase penting pun akhirnya diabaikan. Tidak semua orang bisa jadi pilot, hanya mereka yang belajar dan berlatih menerbangkan pesawat yang bisa.
2. Tidak Paham dan Tidak Menerima Resiko
Pemula seringkali tidak siap menghadapi loss, yang merupakan resiko trading, apalagi loss pada posisi pertama yang dibuka. Seringkali loss di awal trading memberikan tekanan yang berat bagi trader awam, menimbulkan pikiran “Wah, duidku harus balik malam ini juga” dan memicu beberapa posisi keliru lainnya, loss semakin besar dan akhirnya memutuskan pensiun dini.
Seorang trader harus siap menerima kerugian, dan juga sadar bahwa dalam trading selalu akan ada yang namanya loss. Namun, seiring berjalannya proses pembelajaran, tentu saja akan ada profit di tengah-tengah loss, dan nantinya menjadi lebih banyak profit dibandingkan loss. Oleh karena itu, pastikan ketersediaan modal, ukur tingkat resiko Anda dan pastikan resiko berhasil dikendalikan dengan baik. Jangan panik, jangan terburu-buru, profit mungkin tidak datang malam ini, tapi selalu ada kesempatan di setiap tick pergerakan harga.
3. Tidak Menikmati Trading
Terlalu berorientasi pada profit, bukan pada proses trading (termasuk proses pembelajarannya) yang menyenangkan. Apabila seorang trader tidak menikmati tradingnya, tentu saja dia tidak akan mampu berkembang. Duduk tenang, menganalisa pasar, membaca berita, merupakan sebuah langkah yang harus dilakukan, barulah keputusan buy atau sell, atau bahkan tidak mengambil posisi diambil berdasarkan pertimbangan matang. Sebagian besar duduk di depan komputer 1 menit, kemudian melihat grafik naik 10 pip, memutuskan ‘buy‘ berdasarkan insting grafik masih akan naik.
Well, tidak semua orang terlahir menjadi pesepakbola, hanya mereka yang hobi, senang dan tekun menjalani latihan saja yang akan menjadi pemain profesional.
4. Tidak Mendengarkan Pasar
Pasar yang membentuk dan menentukan harga. Analisa dengan berbagai indikator, teknik serta coretan-coretan yang menghiasi chart Anda, semua itu boleh-boleh saja, tapi perhatikan juga faktor-faktor lain. Misal kita ambil contoh pada saat krisis Yunani mencuat, membuat Euro terpukul, tren ke bawah untuk EUR/USD sangat kuat dan pair terus turun berminggu-minggu. Maka dengarkan pasar dan jangan hiraukan posisi buy karena indikator Anda berkata sudah waktunya rebound.
5. Seringkali (atau Selalu) Merasa Benar
Menghadapi sebuah kerugian, apalagi berkali-kali, akan menimbulkan pemikiran, “Padahal posisiku sudah benar” atau “Market curang, padahal sudah dianalisa benar-benar”. Pemikiran semacam itu hanyalah bentuk pelampiasan frustasi, solusinya, tutup komputer Anda, carilah kesenangan. Setelah tenang barulah pikirkan lagi di mana kekurangan analisa Anda, tambahkan masukan tersebut untuk menyempurnakan skill trading Anda. Trader seringkali sangat sulit untuk mengakui kesalahan. Ketika suatu posisi floating negatif pun, trader cenderung merasa bahwa dia sudah benar dan pasar akan segera berbalik arah seperti kehendaknya, sehingga terus menunggu dan justru mengalami loss lebih besar karena market tidak mendengarkan suara hati dan bisikan Anda.
Sangat penting bagi seorang trader untuk bisa menerima dan mengakui kesalahan, sehingga dia bisa segera menutup posisinya yang mulai merugi dan mencegah kerugian yang lebih besar. Kerugian kecil lebih mudah dicari gantinya, sedangkan kerugian besar semakin mempersulit Anda untuk melakukan cut loss, berujung pada kepanikan dan membuat setiap malam sulit tidur memikirkan posisi terkatung-katung. (Serta menimbulkan hasrat pensiun dini :p)
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